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There are two excellent WTA Madrid semifinals for fans to enjoy. Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina meet in a repeat of the 2023 Australian Open semifinal, while Iga Swiatek will seek to overcome the big-hitting Madison Keys. As always, we at LWOT give our predictions and analysis for both contests, but which two players do you think will progress to the final in Madrid?
WTA Madrid Semifinal Predictions
Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys
Head-to-head: Swiatek 2-1 Keys
Keys’ run at the tournament so far has been a surprise. The American had not won a match in Madrid since 2016 before the event started. She has put that behind her with a terrific run so far, including victories against US Open champion Coco Gauff and Ons Jabeur in the last two rounds. Swiatek’s impressive tennis during the tournament on her favourite surface is less surprising, although she is seeking to claim a first title in Madrid.
A source of hope for Keys is that the world No. 1 struggles the most against powerful players who can take time away from her. Last year’s US Open semifinalist regularly does that against her opponents, mostly with her huge forehand, which is one of the best in the women’s game when it is fully firing. She will need to combine that with strong serving to have a realistic chance of causing an upset.
Overall though, a surprise is unlikely to occur. Swiatek has been playing really well so far even by her very high standards. Keys will struggle to be consistent enough with her hitting to trouble the Pole on clay. Swiatek is the best at drawing errors from her opponents on the dirt and she should be able to do that enough times to reach the final.
Prediction: Swiatek in 2
Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina
Head-to-head: Sabalenka 5-3 Rybakina
These two have one of the best rivalries on the WTA Tour, but this will be their first meeting on clay. Both had to work hard to set up this clash. Sabalenka won her first three matches in a deciding set, while Rybakina miraculously recovered from 2-5 15-40 down in the final set against Yulia Putintseva in the previous round.
It is difficult to know which player will benefit more from this contest being on clay. Returning Rybakina’s huge serve will be slightly easier for Sabalenka, but the slower conditions also help Rybakina to be balanced when hitting her powerful groundstrokes, which is a very important part of her baseline game. Despite this, Sabalenka has a chance of using her superior athleticism on clay, and it will be interesting to observe whether the Australian Open champion is as aggressive as usual, or if she decides to be slightly more conservative to get Rybakina playing longer rallies.
Sabalenka is a very slight favourite in Madrid. Rybakina not having a day’s rest after her long previous match could also be an important factor, but in truth, this could easily go either way.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 3
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